IRENA: Hydrogen will reshape the global energy landscape
Time：2022/2/21 8:22:15 Tag：Hydrogen energy, energy transition, green hydrogen
The rapid growth of the hydrogen economy is reshaping the international trade market and the energy relations of countries. Hydrogen energy, especially green hydrogen based on renewable energy, is regarded as an important path to realize energy transformation. With the establishment of new hydrogen exporters and importers, the energy power of each country will be reshuffled, which will lead to new interdependence, which will have a subversive impact on the global economic and political landscape.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) recently released a report saying that with the decline of traditional fossil fuel trade, hydrogen energy will reshape the global energy pattern and change the geographic pattern of world energy trade.
■A new pattern based on hydrogen energy will be born
IRENA believes that the future clean energy market will develop in a "regional rather than global" direction, given the ability of many countries to produce hydrogen. Hydrogen will bring new and diverse players to the market, making the supply more diverse. At the same time, the hydrogen energy market is more inclusive and can provide fair cooperation opportunities for countries around the world.
"Hydrogen, while not the 'new oil', will still have a revolutionary impact on politics, technology, the environment and the economy," said IRENA Director General Francisco LaCamera.
According to the IRENA report, the 2020s will be the era of competition for hydrogen technology, and the explosion in demand for hydrogen will start in the 2030s, when green hydrogen will compete with fossil fuel-based grey hydrogen globally. compete. IRENA predicts that China, Brazil and other countries may usher in this "green gray" cost battle earlier.
The report also believes that with the dominance of the hydrogen economy, the geopolitical influence of oil and gas producing countries that can control price trends will be greatly weakened. This means that a new "energy geopolitical map" will be born, and the importance of "hydrogen diplomacy" will also be greatly enhanced as both hydrogen supply and demand grow together.
■Cross-border trade is gradually active
Based on the expectation that hydrogen energy will account for 12% of global energy use by 2050, IRENA believes that cross-border hydrogen trade will increase in the 2030s, and by 2050 more than 30% of hydrogen can be traded across borders, which is higher than the current proportion Natural gas, of which 2/3 of green hydrogen production will be used locally and 1/3 for cross-border transactions. The revamped pipeline could facilitate half of the hydrogen trade, and the other half would be shipped in the form of hydrogen derivatives, such as hydrogen-derived ammonia.
Green hydrogen will be the most important product in the hydrogen trade. IRENA estimates that by 2030, some countries can achieve the same price of green hydrogen as blue hydrogen.
At present, more than 30 countries and regions plan to carry out hydrogen energy business activities, and establishing hydrogen trade relations can open up new possibilities for the establishment of local hydrogen value chains and the increase of green employment opportunities. In fact, some countries that have not traditionally conducted energy transactions are building bilateral energy relations around hydrogen energy.
IRENA noted that the green hydrogen market is growing "a little bit faster than we had previously expected", with recent deals in Germany, Uruguay and Brazil. American energy consulting firm Black & Vitch pointed out that Asia has made significant progress in hydrogen production and comprehensive application, among which China, Japan and South Korea have made significant progress.
IRENA estimates that the current annual sales of hydrogen is about $174 billion, already surpassing that of LNG, and is expected to increase to $600 billion by 2050, a nearly six-fold increase. Based on this, Bank of America projects that the hydrogen energy market will generate $2.5 trillion in direct revenue and $11 trillion in indirect infrastructure revenue by 2050.
■The roles of energy importers and exporters may be reversed
As the layout of the hydrogen energy industry gradually opens up, the current roles of energy import and export countries may be reversed. The Financial Times wrote that the countries best able to produce electricity from cheap renewable energy are also best suited to produce competitive green hydrogen. Energy-consuming countries such as China, Japan, and the European Union have made hydrogen a major component of their energy strategies. It is estimated that about US$65 billion will be dedicated to hydrogen production in the next 10 years.
Currently, countries such as Chile, Morocco and Namibia are still net energy importers, but their prospects for becoming green hydrogen exporters are very optimistic. According to IRENA analysis, Africa, the Americas, the Middle East and Oceania have the greatest technological potential for "green hydrogen" production, but still face challenges in large-scale technology transfer and infrastructure construction; while Europe, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia have relatively less potential .
■Balancing energy relations between countries
According to the Italian Institute of International Politics (ISPI), the hydrogen energy industry can balance energy relations between countries by creating a more decentralized global energy system.
Ruben David, research associate at ISPI, said: "The redefinition of the energy system will benefit some countries, industries, and businesses, while others will be adversely affected." Current energy exporters may become net energy importers, thereby suffering economic losses. loss. In fact, fossil-fuel-rich countries, which derive most of their income from oil and gas exports, could be disrupted by soaring hydrogen exports, leading to social and political instability.
The transition to hydrogen has also brought upside down multilateral relations as fossil fuel imports and exports become less dependent. “The relationship between the U.S. and the Gulf states could be seriously affected by the transition to renewable energy and hydrogen,” Ruben David said. “The development of rules, standards, and enhanced regulatory governance for hydrogen energy development could also lead to a reshaping of geopolitical relations. ."